Friday, April 20, 2007


Identity Predictions for 2007

The notion of identity as the next killer application has some merit and is worthy of exploration. The problem is that folks within enterprises have very different perspectives than those in the software vendor and venture capital community...

Here are my ten predictions for the remainder of 2007:

1. The ability to externalize identity away from enterprise applications in the BPM, ESB, CRM, ERP, ECM and SOA space will start to take hold. Vendors such as Alfresco, Intalio, ServiceMix, PingIdentity, SXIP and Microsoft will start having more open conversations about its merits and additional standards will emerge.

2. Venture capital will continue to fund federated identity players while funding will slow for more traditional identity management vendors. Venture capitalists likewise will encourage their software vendors to create opportunities by unifiying those within high-profile industry verticals and not simply sitting on the sidelines waiting for it to happen.

3. URL-based identity will move past consumerish web sites and in the Q4 timeframe start to show up in production on investment-oriented sites and even several B2B-oriented sites as well.

4. Either EMC, Sun or Oracle will make attempts to acquire PingIdentity because of the unique value proposition they provide.

5. The enterprise will begin exploring how to use CardSpace in enterprise deployments.

6. Kim Cameron will realize that CardSpace is not only bigger than Microsoft and applications written using Microsoft languages and will step up and help other software vendors who don't write in Microsoft to Cardspace enable their applications.

7. Pat Patterson will lead an internal charge to Cardspace enable J2EE PetStore.

8. Liberty Alliance will become relevant again by focusing on the need to move past discussions on basic identity and start a conversation regarding the need to also talk about authorization.

9. Web Access Management vendors will provide support for both OpenID and Cardspace as a free Service Pack to their offerings before year end.

10. The vast majority of enterprises will remain confused about user-centric approaches to identity and will stick to what they know best, building site-centric identity providers. This trend will occur for at least another five years...

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